Example
A Sikh notices that every time they visit a popular Sant Baba, they receive good news shortly afterward. They conclude that visiting and seeking the blessings of the Sant Baba causes good things to happen.
Understanding the False Cause Fallacy
The False Cause Fallacy, also known as post hoc ergo propter hoc (Latin for “after this, therefore because of this”), occurs when someone incorrectly assumes that because one event follows another, the first event must be the cause of the second. This fallacy conflates correlation with causation without sufficient evidence to support a causal link.
- Characteristics:
- Assuming Causation from Sequence: Believing that temporal order implies a causal relationship.
- Ignoring Other Factors: Overlooking alternative explanations or variables that could account for the outcome.
- Lack of Evidence: Failing to provide empirical support for the supposed causal connection.
Applying It To The Example
- Observation:
- The individual notices a pattern: every time they visit the Sant Baba, they receive good news shortly afterward.
- Conclusion Drawn:
- They conclude that visiting and seeking the blessings of the Sant Baba causes good things to happen.
- Why This Is a False Cause Fallacy:
- Temporal Association Misinterpreted: Just because the good news follows the visit doesn’t mean the visit caused it.
- Correlation vs. Causation: The individual assumes a causal link based solely on the sequence of events.
- Alternative Explanations Ignored: Other factors could be responsible for the good news, such as personal efforts, external circumstances, or mere coincidence.
Why It’s Fallacious Reasoning
- Correlation Does Not Imply Causation:
- Example: If someone wears a lucky shirt and then wins a game, it doesn’t mean the shirt caused the victory.
- Statistical Perspective: Events can be correlated without one causing the other; they might both be related to a third factor or occur independently.
- Possibility of Confirmation Bias:
- The individual may remember instances that support their belief and forget times when good news didn’t follow a visit or when good things happened without a visit.
- Overlooking Randomness and Probability:
- Good and bad events often occur in cycles or randomly, and attributing them to a specific cause without evidence is misleading.
Conclusion
The individual commits the False Cause Fallacy by concluding that visiting the Sant Baba causes good things to happen based solely on a perceived pattern. Without concrete evidence to establish a causal relationship, this reasoning is flawed. The good news might be coincidental, or there could be other explanations unrelated to the visits.